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July, 1742-47 3rd in NL East (7GB)
Runs 347 (10th in NL) Runs Allowed 385 (10th in NL) Differential -38 (10th in NL)
4.03 Team ERA (10th in NL)
The Atlanta Braves were a formidable team just two seasons ago, when they won 96 games as well as the NL East. Fast forward to the beginning of the 2015 season where the Braves were expected to under go a full rebuilding process, and win 71 games finishing fourth ahead of only the Phillies in the NL East. So far they have performed better than expected, although they're in the midst of a 5 game losing streak.
The offense is led by slugger first basemen Freddie Freeman, who's BB % has decreased from 12.7% in 2014 to 9.2% now. However, Freeman has countered his decline in walks by hitting for more power. His SLG % has increased from .461 last year to .520 now. This notable increase in power has increased his wRC+ from 140 to 145. In addition to Freeman, another standout on offense has been Nick Markakis who's performed with a .381 OBP. Another outfielder who has performed well offensively has been Cameron Maybin who has had the best offensive year of his career with 117 wRC+. A player having the worst offensive year of his career is third basemen Chris Johnson. He has been disappointing so far through 44 games played for him, because in 2014 he had 127 wRC+, this year he has failed to surpass a .300 OBP. Overall this is an offense that ranks 13th in OBP, but ranks 26th in SLG % and 30th in both isolated power and HR %. The Braves simply need more extra base hits to add more thump to an offense that isn't scaring any opposing pitcher.
The starting rotation is led by Shelby Miller who is having the best year of his career, mainly due to his progress in home run prevention. The Braves have to be thrilled with the amount of production coming from a 24 year old. On the other hand Julio Teheran has been a disappointment. After improving last year over his rookie campaign, Teheran has regressed with an over 4.5 ERA and FIP. Alex Wood has been solid and is on pace to get near a 4 fWAR. The bullpen took a hit this past offseason losing closer Craig Kimbrel who has probably been the best reliever in baseball the past four years. The trade made sense for the rebuilding process to acquire minor league talent and Cameron Maybin who has performed well, but it definitely weakens the bullpen. This shows in the ERA where the Atlanta bullpen ranks 29th with a 4.40. Overall the Atlanta defense behind the pitcher ranks 26th according to Baseball Prospectus in Defensive Efficiency, which obviously is going to be a detriment to overall defense.
The Atlanta Braves overall are a team I believe even with a 42-47 record are over performing. Their recent performance of 5 straight losses I believe is a better sign of what's to come in the second half than their first half record. In terms of the rebuilding process they need help everywhere. I think the first move should be to lock up Shelby miller to a big 6+ year deal to stay in Atlanta, then the next goal is to develop or sign players who can add thump to an offense that doesn't hit for power other than Freeman besides maybe Juan Uribe. The bullpen and defense both need work as well, therefore I expect the Braves to have around 75 wins this year and will take at least three more years of smart decisions to be able to contend again.
Credits: Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN
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