After finally winning what should have been his third consecutive MVP in 2014, Mike Trout through half of the 2015 campaign has improved on his overall production from last year.
His BB % has dipped from 11.8 to 11.6, but his K % has made drastic improvements from 26.1 % to 22.5 %. His BABIP has remained at .349, which has allowed his ability to put the ball in play more often increase his OBP from .377 last year to .405 now. Also, he's slugging .614 compared to .561 last year, thus his wOBA has improved to .427 from .402. Considering no one matches his production in the AL, and Trout is in line to have another 10+ fWAR, he's my 2015 1/2 season MVP.
Honorable Mentions: Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Jason Kipnis
NL MVP: BRYCE HARPER
The breakout season for Bryce Harper is finally upon us. The best player in baseball thus far and he's 22 years old. Harper has boasted a 216 wRC+ and a 18.4 % BB rate that reflects his .464 OBP, and has also punished mistakes slugging .704. A .374 BABIP is great obviously, but it's not a ridiculous .400 which would lead some to believe it's unsustainable.
Defensively, the metrics don't love him with a 0 UZR and 8 DRS but we are looking at a potential 11 win player regardless.
Honorable Mentions: Paul Goldschmidt, Buster Posey, Nolan Arenado
AL CY YOUNG: SONNY GRAY
It was a tough choice between Gray and Chris Sale. It became a battle between weighting what the pitcher is most responsible for (FIP) or basic run prevention (RA-9WAR). Oakland is friendlier to pitchers than Chicago, but a .36 HR/9 is considerably better than a .75. HR/9.
Also, the hard hit % for Gray was 21.9 % and Sale had a 23.5 %. Meaning although Sale more consistently controlled the strike zone he made more mistakes for hitters to belt for home runs and line drives. In terms of defense errors definitely aren't the best way for measuring fielding, but Oakland is dead last in clear cut bad defensive plays. To conclude, the sizable gap in RA-9WAR which was 4.7 for Gray and 3.6 for Sale led me to believe Gray has been better this half season. Even when you try to factor what these two aces don't have control over.
Honorable Mentions: Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Dallas Keuchel
NL CY YOUNG: ZACH GREINKE
At the end of the season I fully expect Max Scherzer to be awarded the CY Young, mainly because I doubt Greinke will be able to sustain his 1.39 ERA with a 89.5 LOB %. Nevertheless, Grienke has been absolutely fantastic this year. FIP wise he has not been as impressive as Scherzer due to his 7.74 K/9 with Scherzer over 10. But his 5.9 RA9-WAR is enough for me to determine he was the most effective NL pitcher through half this season.
Honorable Mentions: Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Jacob DeGrom
AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: LANCE MCCULLERS
There's no doubt in my mind that if Carlos Correa suited up in an Astros uniform from the beginning of the season he would be the leading candidate for AL ROY. Fortunately for the Astros they also have a rookie pitcher who has been extremely valuable spotting a 2.58 FIP and striking out roughly 10/9. He is not letting the ball out of the ballpark with a .28 HR/9. Only 11 starts but the production has been enough to leap him over other rookies.
Honorable Mentions: Carlos Correa, Billy Burns, Joey Butler
NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: JOC PEDERSON
The ability to get on base with raw power is exciting for this young center fielder who is equipped with a 15.8 BB % which supports his .364 OBP. His 140 wRC+ is highest among qualified rookies, and his ability to hit home runs out of Dodger stadium helps the park adjusted side of the equation. UZR says he's about average but defensive metrics aren't perfect and Pederson has garnered a glowing reputation for his play in center.
Honorable Mentions: Kris Bryant, Alex Guerrero, Jung Ho Kang
MOST DISAPPOINTING PLAYER: ROBINSON CANO
He's been terrible. Coming from a Mariners fan.
Credits: Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, Baseball Prospectus
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