Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Giannis Antetokounmpo: Breakdown

Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images
The Greek Freak! Mr. Alphabet Soup! The Greek prospect has captivated not only Milwaukee fans, but the entire league thanks not only to his incredibly long and difficult name, but his personality and playing ability. Giannis was drafted 15th in 2013, but he wasn't known for being much more than a project pick for the middling Bucks. Some analysts questioned the pick, and most viewers had not even heard of the Nigerian immigrant. He quickly gained recognition for his huge hands, his 7'3 wingspan, and later, the fact that he was rumored to still be growing despite already being 6'9. At this point, Giannis is closer to 6'11 and is pushing 7'0. He came in weighing only 196 pounds, but bulking efforts over the last offseason had Giannis at 217 pounds and he has likely added even more this offseason. Giannis came into the league very raw on both sides of the both, with most people looking at him for his potential rather than his actual worth. Even with that rawness in mind, Giannis quickly put up amazing highlight plays, littered with chasedown blocks, great finishes, and one-man fastbreaks. Antetokounmpo's huge strides allow him to gather from outside the paint and practically gallop towards the rim, as seen during his rookie season.
Even though Giannis shows flashes of elite offensive and defensive capabilities, his youth definitely showed. He averaged about 25 minutes his rookie season, posting 7 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2 assists, a steal, and a block on 42% shooting overall and 35% from 3, adding up to a 46% eFG. His rookie season was good enough to put him on the All-NBA Rookie Second Team. The Bucks failed to make the playoffs, posting the worst record in the league and receiving the #2 pick for their efforts (or lack thereof), which they used to add Jabari Parker. They also added Jason Kidd despite not actually firing Larry Drew beforehand, and franchise cornerstone Larry Sanders got involved in a barfight, sidelining him for the early parts of the season. In essence, The 2014/15 season was not looking good for the Bucks, before it even started. Before the season started, Kidd experimented with Giannis at the point guard spot, which proved worthwhile in the transition but in the halfcourt, not so much. Even then, the possibility is always there. Giannis would be a matchup nightmare for opposing point guards (perhaps pushing the big guard trend to the extreme), and his passing isn't too bad. Anyways, I digress. Coach Kidd had a specific vision for the development of Giannis this past season, telling the prospect to limit his three point shooting and focus on getting to the rim, and the difference is clearly there when comparing the two shot charts.
While he took much fewer threes, his production at the rim and in the midrange region improved greatly. Concerns over Milwaukee's spacing has arisen ever since Michael Carter-Williams joined the team, but I don't have any doubts regarding Giannis' shooting ability from 3. His finishing ability is already great for a 20 year old, and the added bulk he's put on this offseason should make it easier for him to finish at the rim. This past season, Giannis improved greatly on his statistical output, posting averages of 13 points, 7 rebounds, 2.5 assists, a steal, and a block on 49% shooting and 50% eFG. His 3 point percentage dropped to 16%, but he shot less than one a game, meaning that 94% of his attempts came from 2 point range, up from 72% the season prior. His free throw percentage also increased 6%, from 68% to 74%. Behind Michael Carter-Williams, Antetokounmpo averaged 35 passes per game, creating about 6 points for his team every game based on his passing alone, taking into account secondary assists (or "hockey assists") as well. Giannis did not actually pull up for jumpers too often, only attempting 2 per game and converting on them 33% of the time, and he attempted even fewer jumpers after running off screens. In addition, only about 2% of Giannis' possession ended as a result of a hand-off play. So how did Giannis score? It seems like Coach Kidd stuck to his word, focusing his play calling mainly on getting Giannis to the rim rather than him shooting jumpers. A large chunk of Giannis' possessions ended with a drive to the rim, leading his team in total drives at a rate of 5.6 per game. About 4 of his 13 points per game came from drives, shooting 47% on those attempts.
Giannis sizes up Iguodala, creating enough space to drive towards the left side of the rim, where he is able to finish over the onlooking Warriors defense. When Kidd called a cut play for Giannis, he thrived, scoring on said plays 67% of the time and shooting 63%, put him in the 65th percentile league wide. A HUGE part of the Greek Freak's offensive game came from the fastbreak, where his teammates often looked to give him the ball and let him go to work. His long strides allow him to get down the court in only a few dribbles. He then utilizes his finishing ability and long arms to score about 60% of the time, creating 1.15 points per fastbreak opportunity and shooting 65% overall, putting him well into the top half of the league.
One dribble from halfcourt to the rim! What the fuck!
That play needs little explanation. Look at that wingspan! Most of the jumpshots Antetokounmpo took came from spot up situations, accounting for 16% of all of his possessions. He shot 44% on spot up attempts, garnering a 46% eFG and scoring about 45% of the time, good for placement in the 48th percentile. The rest of Antetokounmpo's offense came from isolation plays, a place Giannis was thrust into 207 times this past season. He only scored 0.75 pointers per isolation possession, shooting 37% and putting him in the 40th percentile, despite making up 19% of his offense. About half as often as he isolated, Giannis posted up, posting similar numbers of 0.8 points per possession, however he shot 48% on all post up attempts.

One of the things Antetokounmpo fans really hype up is his defensive skill and his potential in that area. Most players that come into this league with quickness and a long wingspan are hailed in similar fashion, but Giannis perhaps moreso due to the fact that he's one of the most hyped players in the league. Giannis performed well in defensive isolation situations, only allowing 39% on attempts against him. He isn't the best isolation defender on the team, especially when compared to Khris Middleton or Michael Carter-Williams, but he can hold his own, often matched up against the other team's second best wing player.
In this clip, Giannis effectively utilizes his length to shut down the left side of the court against Jimmy, shading him to the right and away from the 3 point line. He aptly stays with his man and forces Butler to put up a well-contested stepback at the buzzer.
Here, Antetokounmpo in essence guides Lin towards the big man down in the low post. Lin sees that the big man is in position to help should he continue the drive, so he instead pulls up for an ill-advised fader that Giannis contests well. Giannis is about league average when defending against spot up shooters, allowing 1 point per spot up possession and placing right around the 50th percentile. Giannis really shone when defending the pick-and-roll ball handler, as opposed to guarding the roll man. He isn't quite strong enough to deter a big man set on rolling to the rim, but his length and height advantage allows him to quickly close out on the ball handler and trick him into shooting a bad shot, even if he is a step behind the handler, allowing only 34% shooting and giving up points only 32% of the time.
Guarding against his eventual teammate here, Giannis fights over the screen and keeps Carter-Williams in check. A combination of a threatening rotation by Zaza and the a looming Giannis behind him, Michael settles for a one-footed jumper, which Giannis is in range to contest. The brand of defense Antetokounmpo plays is a frenetic one, filled with energy and youthfulness. Keeping that in mind, Giannis often found himself without a man to guard on second and third chance opportunities, scrambling to find his matchup. Not seen in the play above is this sequence,
where Giannis chases after the wrong man after the rebound, or this crazy one,
where Giannis and the Bucks in general are all over the place. Some of that may be attributed to lack of communication on defense, but look for Giannis to really work on his defensive awareness this offseason. The tools, mentality, and attitude are all there, and Antetokounmpo has made it known recently that he plans on spending his whole career in Milwaukee. Even so, you have to hope that you see more of this,
and less of this,

this coming season.

Credit: nbasavant, basketball reference, nba.com, Getty Images

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