Madison Bumgarner Is Overrated

AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

Madison Bumgarner had a historic October in 2014. Besides one bad start in 2012,
Bumgarner has been fantastic in the postseason, with a 2.18 ERA and a 3.05 FIP on 88 IP. However, the past 3 seasons Bumgarner has not been a top 15 pitcher in Baseball. In fact, for the sake of using one stat, the past 3 years in fWAR Bumgarner has ranked on average 22. In case you didn't know fWAR is comprised primarily of a pitchers FIP and IP, along of course with park and league adjustments. So how is he doing this year? Well through half of the 2015 season Bumgarner has regressed, because of his increase  in home runs conceded, which is linked to the decrease in his GB % from 44.4% in 2014 to 40% now. Currently, he ranks 31st in fWAR and has a .5 rWAR, so he hasn't performed like an ace even if you look at basic run prevention instead of defensive independent stats. Even the past 3 years, Bumgarner's average rWAR is 0.56. I understand weighting post season performance over regular season performance, but a team still has to make the post season to have a chance, and before last season Bumgarner was a good not great postseason pitcher just like he is in the regular season. I believe last postseason was an anomaly, and unless his overall numbers improve I doubt we will see another stretch like last October from him in the postseason.


Credits: Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, Bleacher Report