Tom Pennington/Getty Images
July, 17
42-45 3rd in NL West (7.5GB)
Runs 392 (1st in NL), Runs Allowed 392, (11th in NL) Differential 0 (7th in NL)
4.23 Team ERA (13th in NL)
This season so far for the Arizona Diamondbacks has been surprisingly competitive. Prior to the beginning of the 2015 season, many analysts predicted the Diamondbacks to win around 70 games and finish last in the NL West. With 42 wins at the All Star break and the San Diego Padres being a major disappointment with a 41-49 record, it's safe to assume the Diamondbacks will exceed those expectations.
They have been led by superstar Paul Goldschmidt who's been an offensive juggernaut with a .443 wOBA and 183 wRC+.The biggest wildcard going into the season was 24 year old Cuban rookie Yasmany Tomas, who signed a 6 year $68.5m contract this past offseason. So far he's held his own offensively putting up a .348 wOBA and 118 wRC+, but defensively, as expected he hasn't done very well with a -4 UZR. Another improvement from last year has been AJ Pollock who has been a very good and overlooked all around outfielder. Boasting a .353 wOBA and 122 wRC+ with 9 DRS and a 3.4 fWAR, which exceeds his 3.3 fWAR last season, and we're only roughly halfway through the season. In addition, on June 3rd the Diamondbacks dealt 1B/OF Mark Trumbo to the Seattle Mariners for Catcher Wellington Castillo and young pitching talent, which should hopefully support a bad pitching staff. I thought this was a good trade, because Trumbo is a pretty good hitter but is slow and a defensive liability, plus with the addition of Tomas the Diamondbacks are well equipped at the corner outfield and first base positions.
Unfortunately the Diamondbacks offense has not been supported by a good starting rotation. Ruby De La Rosa and Jeremy Helickson are both struggling with a 5 ERA each and over 5 FIP. In addition, young talented pitcher Archie Bradley quickly faced growing pains before being sent to the DL. The bullpen has been better ranked 14th in terms of ERA. Closer Brad Ziegler leads the way with a 1.14 ERA and 3.44 FIP but a .178 BABIP seems unsustainable. Randall Delgado has also pitched decently with a 3.21 ERA but a 3.69 BB/9 is alarming. Oliver Perez has also been OK but like the starting rotation no one in the bullpen is a dominant force who one can trust to get things done. To conclude, the Diamondbacks starting rotation is terrible lacking anything close to a true number 1. Paired with a decent bullpen it's an overall bad pitching staff.
Due to the lack of pitching I doubt the Diamondbacks will contend for an NL wildcard, but the foundation of cornerstone players are there if they are able to re-sign A.J Pollock, and if Yasmany Tomas continues to grow to help Paul Goldschmidt. I predict the Diamondbacks will finish with 80-82 wins and finish 3rd in the NL West. If the Diamondbacks are able to re-sign Pollock and acquire quality starting pitching I expect to them to be in October for the 2016 season.
Credits: Fangraphs, ESPN
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