AP Photo/Kathy Willens
July, 2446-48 3rd in AL East (7GB)
Runs 410 (7th in AL) Runs Allowed 374 (6th in AL) Differential 36 (6th in AL)
3.80 Team ERA (6th in AL)
The defending AL East Champs are not in the position they hoped to be towards the end of July. While many thought the Orioles would take a big step back; arguing the loss of Nelson Cruz and his 40 HR would be to large of a deficit to overcome. I still believed this was a team deserving play-off expectations, because I thought the return of third basemen Manny Machado and Catcher Matt Weiters would suffice as a replacement for Cruz's overall production. So far Machado has performed extremely well, but after being swept by the first place Yankees, the baseball world is wondering if the Orioles will become sellers as we approach the trade deadline.
Fortunately for the Orioles offense, Manny Machado has been a superstar this season. While having always been a terrific defender, Machado has improved immensely on the offensive end. Thus far the third basemen has a .307 TAv, .533 SLG, and 10.2 FRAA. He's become by far the best player on this Orioles team and will probably be a 6.5 win player in fWAR, rWAR, and WARP. On the opposite end of the spectrum, both shortstop JJ Hardy and Matt Wieters have been disappointing. Hardy has hit for a terrible .226 TAv and Wieters hasn't hit much better with a .239 TAv, also both are currently below a .300 OBP. Center fielder Adam Jones has improved marginally from last year in both OBP and SLG %. Overall as a team the Orioles offense is about average with a 101 wRC+ and .318 wOBA.
The pitching staff is supported by a defense with a .699 defensive efficiency that ranks 4th in the AL, which is impressive considering even prior to park adjustments the Orioles defense is able to post excellent efficiency while playing in a hitter friendly ball park. Nevertheless the first line of defense is the pitching and the starting rotation together has a 4.55 FIP and a 90 ERA+. Wei-Yin Chen and Ubaldo Jimenez have been decent, but last year's best starter Chris Tillman has been dreadful with a 4.13 FIP and a 78 ERA+. Backing up the rotation the Baltimore bullpen is led by lefty Zach Britton who has a 1.80 FIP and also Darren O'Day who has a 1.04 ERA and 2.84 FIP. Overall the Orioles bullpen is stacked with the only weak link being Tommy Hunter who has a OK 3.86 ERA, but nonetheless the bullpen is the strong point of the Baltimore pitching staff.
The two strengths for Baltimore is their defense and bullpen. A decent but inconsistent offense along with a bad starting rotation lacking a 1 or even a 2 is why they're 2 games under .500. I expect the Orioles to not be in the postseason and to remain patient at the deadline by not making any desperate moves or to start a rebuilding project. They definitely need to acquire arms in the starting rotation as well as some bats to help Machado. Hopefully Jimmy Parades who has shown an ability to put to ball in play, but needs to walk more and hit for more power.
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